The damage in [Sheets's] elbow is serious enough to warrant surgical repair, and it will require prolonged immobilization and vigorous rehabilitation, followed by strict adherence to a lengthy throwing/pitching program. The first three months is mostly range of motion [exercises] and light strengthening, followed by an increase in his strengthening program thereafter. I would not count on seeing him again in 2009, though if he did manage [to return], it would probably not be before August. Anything is possible I suppose. 

I think he can become an effective major league pitcher again, as other pitchers have bounced back from this type of surgery (Andy Pettitte, Mike Hampton, Billy Wagner, etc.). Tom Glavine is also on the mend from a similar procedure. I think the bigger question is: how long can he be effective? We need to understand that this is a guy who has had a multitude of pitching shoulder/arm problems, and that the likelihood of breaking down again is probably going to be high — not to mention that Jason Jennings had this surgery and hasn’t done that well with it.

Joey also commented on Gil Lebreton’s article which basically outlines what happened with the deal, why it broke down, and why it would be a good idea for Ben Sheets to take a multi year deal with little guaranteed money, most of it coming from incentives.

Well, it happened. The Ben Sheets 2009 campaign has come to an abrupt halt, confirming what 29 other front office execs and trainers already knew: Ben Sheets arm is not functional for the 2009 season. Sheets will apparently require surgery on a torn Flexor Tendon in his elbow, and will miss a majority, if not all of the 2009 season. This is not news to Ben Sheets, however. Allegedly, he ready to go under the knife this past week but wanted to wait on insurance clearance from the Rangers or Brewers. A savvy business move, a sorry one for a team that was almost willing to take a chance on your broken down body.

This comes as both a disaster and a big break for the Rangers. The let down of not getting Sheets, an undeniable ace, at the front of the Rangers staff is certainly disheartening, but it could be much worse. If they had inked the 2 year contract they had agreed upon 2 weeks ago (pending a physical) then the Rangers would have once again wasted money on a spare part. Avoiding inking Sheets saved the Rangers from both a PR and Financial headache.

So where do they go from here? Sheets will probably undergo surgery and will likely miss the entire 2009 season. The Rangers do not have much else to go after in the way of free agent starters, so they will probably stand pat with the rotation of Millwood, Padilla, Harrison, McCarthy and Feldman. Doesn’t exactly strike fear, does it? If the Rangers are going to have to go with a patched up rotation and bullpen again this year, then why not sign Ben Sheets anyways? They should sign him on a deal where in the first year he makes league minimum, in years 2 and 3 of the contract he will be guaranteed a $3 million deal with incentives up to $10 million. This should not negatively impact the Rangers, nor should Sheets turn it down. Betting on how the body will respond to a surgery and rehab such as this is very risky, he should consider the upfront money now in case his career is totally derailed.

Also, Sheets is damaged goods. Most teams shied away from him this season, leaving the All Star Game starter from 2008 with very little in the way of options. If the Rangers can sign him now, when his value has never been lower, I think in ’10 and ’11 we see this as a good move. The worst thing that happens is he comes back and is ineffective, or that he doesn’t come back at all. At $3-$4 million a year, however, this should be a risk the Rangers should be willing to take.

The Rangers will have about $25 million coming off the books between Blalock, Padilla and Millwood in that time period. If he comes back and is an ace again then he is easily worth up to $10 million and you have a rotation that could possibly consist of Sheets, Holland, Feliz, and whoever else proves themselves over the next year and a half. That’s a pretty solid rotation if everyone pans out like expected.

It’s a tough break in this case, but the Rangers need to continue to look ahead to the future of this ballclub. There is a pretty slim listing of free agent starters in the 2010 market (Bedard, Harden, Wellemeyer are of the higher caliber ones) so why not go out now and get Sheets locked in.