Results tagged ‘ Ben Sheets ’
The Latest in the Ben Sheets Meltdown…
The damage in [Sheets's] elbow is serious enough to warrant surgical repair, and it will require prolonged immobilization and vigorous rehabilitation, followed by strict adherence to a lengthy throwing/pitching program. The first three months is mostly range of motion [exercises] and light strengthening, followed by an increase in his strengthening program thereafter. I would not count on seeing him again in 2009, though if he did manage [to return], it would probably not be before August. Anything is possible I suppose.
I think he can become an effective major league pitcher again, as other pitchers have bounced back from this type of surgery (Andy Pettitte, Mike Hampton, Billy Wagner, etc.). Tom Glavine is also on the mend from a similar procedure. I think the bigger question is: how long can he be effective? We need to understand that this is a guy who has had a multitude of pitching shoulder/arm problems, and that the likelihood of breaking down again is probably going to be high — not to mention that Jason Jennings had this surgery and hasn’t done that well with it.
Joey also commented on Gil Lebreton’s article which basically outlines what happened with the deal, why it broke down, and why it would be a good idea for Ben Sheets to take a multi year deal with little guaranteed money, most of it coming from incentives.
Sheets Landmine Arm Strikes Again…
Well, it happened. The Ben Sheets 2009 campaign has come to an abrupt halt, confirming what 29 other front office execs and trainers already knew: Ben Sheets arm is not functional for the 2009 season. Sheets will apparently require surgery on a torn Flexor Tendon in his elbow, and will miss a majority, if not all of the 2009 season. This is not news to Ben Sheets, however. Allegedly, he ready to go under the knife this past week but wanted to wait on insurance clearance from the Rangers or Brewers. A savvy business move, a sorry one for a team that was almost willing to take a chance on your broken down body.
This comes as both a disaster and a big break for the Rangers. The let down of not getting Sheets, an undeniable ace, at the front of the Rangers staff is certainly disheartening, but it could be much worse. If they had inked the 2 year contract they had agreed upon 2 weeks ago (pending a physical) then the Rangers would have once again wasted money on a spare part. Avoiding inking Sheets saved the Rangers from both a PR and Financial headache.
So where do they go from here? Sheets will probably undergo surgery and will likely miss the entire 2009 season. The Rangers do not have much else to go after in the way of free agent starters, so they will probably stand pat with the rotation of Millwood, Padilla, Harrison, McCarthy and Feldman. Doesn’t exactly strike fear, does it? If the Rangers are going to have to go with a patched up rotation and bullpen again this year, then why not sign Ben Sheets anyways? They should sign him on a deal where in the first year he makes league minimum, in years 2 and 3 of the contract he will be guaranteed a $3 million deal with incentives up to $10 million. This should not negatively impact the Rangers, nor should Sheets turn it down. Betting on how the body will respond to a surgery and rehab such as this is very risky, he should consider the upfront money now in case his career is totally derailed.
Also, Sheets is damaged goods. Most teams shied away from him this season, leaving the All Star Game starter from 2008 with very little in the way of options. If the Rangers can sign him now, when his value has never been lower, I think in ’10 and ’11 we see this as a good move. The worst thing that happens is he comes back and is ineffective, or that he doesn’t come back at all. At $3-$4 million a year, however, this should be a risk the Rangers should be willing to take.
The Rangers will have about $25 million coming off the books between Blalock, Padilla and Millwood in that time period. If he comes back and is an ace again then he is easily worth up to $10 million and you have a rotation that could possibly consist of Sheets, Holland, Feliz, and whoever else proves themselves over the next year and a half. That’s a pretty solid rotation if everyone pans out like expected.
It’s a tough break in this case, but the Rangers need to continue to look ahead to the future of this ballclub. There is a pretty slim listing of free agent starters in the 2010 market (Bedard, Harden, Wellemeyer are of the higher caliber ones) so why not go out now and get Sheets locked in.
What the Rangers need to do with the Ben Sheets contract…
been in the league for almost 10 years and I have no doubt that he is
going to be prepared going into camp regardless of which uniform he is
wearing. That being said I still think he signs with the Rangers, but
you do have to wonder what is going on with the contract to hold them
up so long.
First off, I think the Rangers might be angling for
a 1 year + option deal. I don’t think this is a bad idea, but something
Sheets is not going to want. He is going to want 3-4 years guaranteed
for his gimpy arm. Bottom line is they need to meet somewhere in the
middle. Signing him to a straight one-year deal (like a lot of the
teams in the Sheets sweepstakes have been trying to do) is detrimental
to the Rangers in several ways. First, if he has a career year and
doesn’t get hurt, he gets lured away by another team that can afford to
pay him. If they sign him to one year with an option, he will be
pitching in 2009 and 2010, not enough time for the young arms to really
bolster this rotation.
I think they need to get a 2 year deal
with a 1 year team option put together. Structure the contract to pay
more guaranteed on the back end to give them time to get rid of
Millwood and Padilla’s contracts for good. Here are some of the points
you have to look at.
1. Ben Sheets is fragile. If he can come out and hit 175 innings for
the next 3 years he will be extremely valuable to this team, if he does
it for 65 innings this year, 105 innings next year, and 95 the year
after that, he isn’t worth the contract.
2. Millwood and Padilla have contracts that expire at the end of
2010, barring that their team options are picked up (something I am not
sure will happen). Millwood makes
$11 million this year, $12 million next year. The club option will be
realized if he hits 180 innings this year, if not I don’t think you
will see Millwood here next year. Padilla is worth $12 million this
year
and $12 million in 2010. The club has an optional $1.75 million buy-out
on Padilla’s contract for 2010. I think it all depends on what he does
this year if the contract is renewed. Basically you might be seeing $24
million (over 1/3 of the current Rangers payroll) slashed next season,
which would allow them to sign Ben Sheets (who is much better than
Millie or Pads when he isn’t on the DL) for cheap and for an extended
period of time without much downside.
3.
Sheets is cheap. Barring he needs surgery right now (which wouldn’t
surprise me, I think Mark Connor is putting something in the water that
tears rotator cuffs) he comes at a very cheap price for the lowly
Rangers. His contract will probably be in the $6-$8 million range,
which is very reasonable for the caliber of pitcher he is. If the
Rangers can stand to choke down his contract if he needs season ending
surgery in either of the first two years (which I think they should be
able to handle) then go ahead and sign him.
Here is my proposal:
Sign
Sheets, sign him now. Sign him for $6.5 million guaranteed in the first
year with incentives up to $10.5 million, 7.5 million guaranteed in the
second year with incentives up to 11.5 million, and give him a club
option in 2011 for $10 million guaranteed up to $12 million in
incentives. If we can hang on to him until 2011, and keep him healthy,
Holland, Feliz, Main, and the rest of the kids will be longterm guys in
the rotation, with Sheets they will have a veteran ace to lead the way.
What the Rangers need to do with the Ben Sheets contract…
been in the league for almost 10 years and I have no doubt that he is
going to be prepared going into camp regardless of which uniform he is
wearing. That being said I still think he signs with the Rangers, but
you do have to wonder what is going on with the contract to hold them
up so long.
First off, I think the Rangers might be angling for
a 1 year + option deal. I don’t think this is a bad idea, but something
Sheets is not going to want. He is going to want 3-4 years guaranteed
for his gimpy arm. Bottom line is they need to meet somewhere in the
middle. Signing him to a straight one-year deal (like a lot of the
teams in the Sheets sweepstakes have been trying to do) is detrimental
to the Rangers in several ways. First, if he has a career year and
doesn’t get hurt, he gets lured away by another team that can afford to
pay him. If they sign him to one year with an option, he will be
pitching in 2009 and 2010, not enough time for the young arms to really
bolster this rotation.
I think they need to get a 2 year deal
with a 1 year team option put together. Structure the contract to pay
more guaranteed on the back end to give them time to get rid of
Millwood and Padilla’s contracts for good. Here are some of the points
you have to look at.
1. Ben Sheets is fragile. If he can come out and hit 175 innings for
the next 3 years he will be extremely valuable to this team, if he does
it for 65 innings this year, 105 innings next year, and 95 the year
after that, he isn’t worth the contract.
2. Millwood and Padilla have contracts that expire at the end of
2010, barring that their team options are picked up (something I am not
sure will happen). Millwood makes
$11 million this year, $12 million next year. The club option will be
realized if he hits 180 innings this year, if not I don’t think you
will see Millwood here next year. Padilla is worth $12 million this
year
and $12 million in 2010. The club has an optional $1.75 million buy-out
on Padilla’s contract for 2010. I think it all depends on what he does
this year if the contract is renewed. Basically you might be seeing $24
million (over 1/3 of the current Rangers payroll) slashed next season,
which would allow them to sign Ben Sheets (who is much better than
Millie or Pads when he isn’t on the DL) for cheap and for an extended
period of time without much downside.
3.
Sheets is cheap. Barring he needs surgery right now (which wouldn’t
surprise me, I think Mark Connor is putting something in the water that
tears rotator cuffs) he comes at a very cheap price for the lowly
Rangers. His contract will probably be in the $6-$8 million range,
which is very reasonable for the caliber of pitcher he is. If the
Rangers can stand to choke down his contract if he needs season ending
surgery in either of the first two years (which I think they should be
able to handle) then go ahead and sign him.
Here is my proposal:
Sign
Sheets, sign him now. Sign him for $6.5 million guaranteed in the first
year with incentives up to $10.5 million, 7.5 million guaranteed in the
second year with incentives up to 11.5 million, and give him a club
option in 2011 for $10 million guaranteed up to $12 million in
incentives. If we can hang on to him until 2011, and keep him healthy,
Holland, Feliz, Main, and the rest of the kids will be longterm guys in
the rotation, with Sheets they will have a veteran ace to lead the way.
What the Rangers need to do with the Ben Sheets contract…
So the Rangers are yet to sign Mr. Sheets, which is fine. He is 32, has been in the league for almost 10 years and I have no doubt that he is going to be prepared going into camp regardless of which uniform he is wearing. That being said I still think he signs with the Rangers, but you do have to wonder what is going on with the contract to hold them up so long.
First off, I think the Rangers might be angling for a 1 year + option deal. I don’t think this is a bad idea, but something Sheets is not going to want. He is going to want 3-4 years guaranteed for his gimpy arm. Bottom line is they need to meet somewhere in the middle. Signing him to a straight one-year deal (like a lot of the teams in the Sheets sweepstakes have been trying to do) is detrimental to the Rangers in several ways. First, if he has a career year and doesn’t get hurt, he gets lured away by another team that can afford to pay him. If they sign him to one year with an option, he will be pitching in 2009 and 2010, not enough time for the young arms to really bolster this rotation.
I think they need to get a 2 year deal with a 1 year team option put together. Structure the contract to pay more guaranteed on the back end to give them time to get rid of Millwood and Padilla’s contracts for good. Here are some of the points you have to look at.
1. Ben Sheets is fragile. If he can come out and hit 175 innings for
the next 3 years he will be extremely valuable to this team, if he does
it for 65 innings this year, 105 innings next year, and 95 the year
after that, he isn’t worth the contract.
2. Millwood and Padilla have contracts that expire at the end of 2010, barring that their team options are picked up (something I am not sure will happen). Millwood makes
$11 million this year, $12 million next year. The club option will be
realized if he hits 180 innings this year, if not I don’t think you
will see Millwood here next year. Padilla is worth $12 million this year
and $12 million in 2010. The club has an optional $1.75 million buy-out on Padilla’s contract for 2010. I think it all depends on what he does this year if the contract is renewed. Basically you might be seeing $24 million (over 1/3 of the current Rangers payroll) slashed next season, which would allow them to sign Ben Sheets (who is much better than Millie or Pads when he isn’t on the DL) for cheap and for an extended period of time without much downside.
3. Sheets is cheap. Barring he needs surgery right now (which wouldn’t surprise me, I think Mark Connor is putting something in the water that tears rotator cuffs) he comes at a very cheap price for the lowly Rangers. His contract will probably be in the $6-$8 million range, which is very reasonable for the caliber of pitcher he is. If the Rangers can stand to choke down his contract if he needs season ending surgery in either of the first two years (which I think they should be able to handle) then go ahead and sign him.
Here is my proposal:
Sign Sheets, sign him now. Sign him for $6.5 million guaranteed in the first year with incentives up to $10.5 million, 7.5 million guaranteed in the second year with incentives up to 11.5 million, and give him a club option in 2011 for $10 million guaranteed up to $12 million in incentives. If we can hang on to him until 2011, and keep him healthy, Holland, Feliz, Main, and the rest of the kids will be longterm guys in the rotation, with Sheets they will have a veteran ace to lead the way.
Some Interesting Ben Sheets Statistics…
Sheets vs. AL
Totals: 82.1 IP; 65 H; 29 R; 26 ER; 27 BB; 64 K:
Sheets vs. AL West
Totals: vs. LAA (2002) 6 IP; 8 H; 5 R; 5 ER; 3 BB; 4 K;
vs. OAK (2002) 4 IP; 9 H; 7 R; 6 ER; 2 BB; 3 K;
vs. LAA (2004) 9 IP; 1 H; 0 R; 0 ER; 0 BB; 5 K; (complete game 1 hitter)
vs. TEX (2007) 7 IP; 5 H; 0 R; 0 ER; 2 BB; 6 K;
Against current Angels hitters:
vs. Vlad Daddy 18 AB; 7 H; 1 HR; 4 RBI; 1 BB; 5 K; .389 BA; .556 SLG; .977 OPS
vs. Torii Hunter 8 AB; 3 H; 2 2B; 0 RBI; 1 BB; 1 K; .375 BA; .625 SLG; 1.069 OPS
vs. Chone Figgins 4 AB; 0 H; 0 RBI; 0 BB; .000 BA
vs. GMJ 3 AB; 2 H; 2 BB; .667 BA; .667 SLG; 1.467 OPS
Totals against LAA: 37 AB; 12 H; 2 2B; 1 HR; 5 RBI; 4 BB; 7 K; .324 BA; .459 SLG;
Not a great initial look when you see the OPS (.850). Hopefully he can hold it together a little better against the Angels than these stats suggest he will.
Against current Oakland hitters:
vs. Matt Holliday 8 AB; 3 H; 1 BB; 2 K; .375 BA; .375 SLG; .819 OPS
vs. Mark Ellis 3 AB; 3 H; 1 2B; 2 RBI; 1.000 BA; 1.333 SLG; 2.333 OPS
vs. Rest of Team 6AB; 3 H; 2 BB; .500 BA; .500 SLG; 1.000 OPS
Totals against OAK: 17 AB; 9 H; 1 2B; 2 RBI; 3 BB; 3 K; .529 BA; .588 SLG; 1.188 OPS
Even worse. Luckily these are small sample sizes but it still makes you worry that these guys might have his number.
Against current Seattle hitters:
vs. Adrian Beltre 15 AB; 4 H; 1 2B; 2 BB; 5 SO; .267 BA; .333 SLG; .686 OPS
vs. Endy Chavez 14 AB; 3 H; 1 2B; 0 BB; 3 K; .214 BA; .286 SLG; .500 OPS
vs. Russell Branyan 12 AB; 4 H; 1 2B; 1 3B; 1 RBI; 0 BB; 4 K; .333 BA; .917 OPS
Totals against SEA: 42 AB; 12 H; 3 2B; 1 3B; 1 RBI; 2 BB; 12 K; .286 BA; .405 SLG; .723 OPS
Totals against all current AL West hitters:
97AB; 33 H; 6 2B; 1 3B; 1 HR; 8 RBI; 9 BB; 22 K; .340 BA; .454 SLG; .795 OPS;
As you can see these numbers are not good, at all. Especially if he is pitching in the Ballpark in August. Let’s hope if the Rangers make a deal that he shows up and throws 9 inning complete game shut outs more than 5 inning 7 run nightmares. We have plenty of guys who can already do that.
Ben Sheets vs. Free Agent SP Salaries
Here are some of the Free Agent Starting
Pitchers over the past three years that have signed for more than Ben
Sheets is looking for. He apparently wants 2 years, 9 million with a 1
year club option (essentially 3/27):
2006:
Barry Zito: 8 years, 136 million
Gil Meche: 5 years, 55 million
Jason Schmidt: 3 years, 47 million
Jeff Suppan: 4 years, 42 million
Ted Lilly: 4 years, 40 million
Vincente Padilla: 3 years, 33.75 million
Mike Mussina: 2 years, 23 million
Andy Pettite: 1 year, 16 million
Greg Maddux: 1 year, 10 million
Tom Glavine: 1 year, 10.5 million
2007:
Andy Pettite: 1 year, 16 million
Carlos Silva: 4 years, 48 million
Kenny Rogers: 1 year, 8 million (not more than Sheets, but being in the same ballpark as Kenny freakin’ Rogers?)
2008:
C. C. Sabathia: 8 years, 180 million
A. J. Burnett: 7 years, 161 million
Derek Lowe: 4 years, 60 million
Ryan Dempster: 4 years, 52 million
Not a ton of names, but defintely some on that list that Sheets has
to be ranked higher than. Sheets is an ace when he is healthy, straight
up. Isn’t 9 million a year (less than what the injury proned Kerry
Wood, who has converted to the bullpen will make) worth the risk? Let’s
not forget that he threw nearly 200 innings last year, more than any
Rangers pitcher, if we could get 190 solid innings out of the guy over
the course of a season is that not worth the money?
A little catch up for everyone…
Sorry about not being on here yesterday, me and Jarrett were out on the golf course and away from the computer all day. When I got home I was too interested in Lost and Top Chef to post anything, so here is a little catch up on everything that happened yesterday:
Eric Hurley tears rotator cuff.
This is a pretty significant blow to the rotation next year. While Hurley was not supposed to come out and be the ace of this team, I did think he would be a solid #4 if he could stay healthy. Well, so much for that idea. I am really hoping Hurley comes back from this surgery, but odds are this could be the end of Eric Hurley. I have been anti-Sheets for a while now, but I think we need to go get him now. My friend Ryan from RangerTradeTalk.MLBlogs.com sent me a spreadsheet he put together on Sheets against the AL this morning. Pretty interesting stuff. He is 5-4 with a 2.84 ERA against American League teams in 12 starts. Has 64 Ks in 82.1 innings, 65 hits, 26 earned runs and 27 walks. He blanked the Angels in 2004, nearly throwing a perfect game.
The Rangers farm system gets even more #1 love.
This is about the 5th list I have seen the Rangers receive a #1 ranking on this off season, which pretty much suggests that the cat is out of the bag. This reinforces the depth of talent we have in our minor league clubs, and one thing people continue to mention is the different, yet equally impressive, waves of young talent that will be coming to Arlington in the next 1-5 years. Law ranks Neftali Feliz (#4), Justin Smoak (#15) and Derek Holland (#21) in the Top 25 prospects in all of baseball. Excited yet? Jim Callis of Baseball America ranks Neftali Feliz #9 in his overall minor league pitching prospects.
Jason Parks writes Q & A dissertation over at BBTiA.
Check this out, lots of good stuff. I am actually going to go through some of these questions and answer them with my own opinions later today. Jason Parks comes through as usual with tons of good information, if you don’t have this blog on your bookmark toolbar yet, you should.
I’ve got some stuff of Ben Sheets coming up later today or tonight and a few notes on JD and the offseason in the next couple days as well. My work schedule has slowed up a bit so I will try and get some more posts out today. Will be attending the caravan tonight to get Josh Hamilton to sign his walk off homerun lineup card that I bought myself for a Christmas present. Let me know if you guys are gonna be out there, I’d like to say hi if you are.
Soiled Sheets…
It was reported yesterday on MLB.com that the Mets, if the cannot net Oliver Perez, are interested in adding Ben Sheets to their rotation. This does not come as a surprise as Sheets price is dropping with every passing day. Teams that originally were scared off by his medical reports and oft injured history are starting to think he is worth the risk with his price coming down.
I have said it a couple of times before, but I do not think John Daniels was ever seriously interested in Ben Sheets. If the price was right, maybe, but we are going to see more and more teams jumping into the Sheets sweepstakes now with his declining price. I just do not see that Rangers (even though he is a home town guy) coming away with him. I think he signs for 3 years, around 9-11 million per year, something Daniels and Hicks are probably not interested in.
According to Newsday, the Mets are also interested in Freddy Garcia, Randy Wolf, and Jon Garland.
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