So the Rangers are yet to sign Mr. Sheets, which is fine. He is 32, has
been in the league for almost 10 years and I have no doubt that he is
going to be prepared going into camp regardless of which uniform he is
wearing. That being said I still think he signs with the Rangers, but
you do have to wonder what is going on with the contract to hold them
up so long.

First off, I think the Rangers might be angling for
a 1 year + option deal. I don’t think this is a bad idea, but something
Sheets is not going to want. He is going to want 3-4 years guaranteed
for his gimpy arm. Bottom line is they need to meet somewhere in the
middle. Signing him to a straight one-year deal (like a lot of the
teams in the Sheets sweepstakes have been trying to do) is detrimental
to the Rangers in several ways. First, if he has a career year and
doesn’t get hurt, he gets lured away by another team that can afford to
pay him. If they sign him to one year with an option, he will be
pitching in 2009 and 2010, not enough time for the young arms to really
bolster this rotation.

I think they need to get a 2 year deal
with a 1 year team option put together. Structure the contract to pay
more guaranteed on the back end to give them time to get rid of
Millwood and Padilla’s contracts for good. Here are some of the points
you have to look at.

1. Ben Sheets is fragile. If he can come out and hit 175 innings for
the next 3 years he will be extremely valuable to this team, if he does
it for 65 innings this year, 105 innings next year, and 95 the year
after that, he isn’t worth the contract.

2. Millwood and Padilla have contracts that expire at the end of
2010, barring that their team options are picked up (something I am not
sure will happen). Millwood makes
$11 million this year, $12 million next year. The club option will be
realized if he hits 180 innings this year, if not I don’t think you
will see Millwood here next year. Padilla is worth $12 million this
year
and $12 million in 2010. The club has an optional $1.75 million buy-out
on Padilla’s contract for 2010. I think it all depends on what he does
this year if the contract is renewed. Basically you might be seeing $24
million (over 1/3 of the current Rangers payroll) slashed next season,
which would allow them to sign Ben Sheets (who is much better than
Millie or Pads when he isn’t on the DL) for cheap and for an extended
period of time without much downside.

3.
Sheets is cheap. Barring he needs surgery right now (which wouldn’t
surprise me, I think Mark Connor is putting something in the water that
tears rotator cuffs) he comes at a very cheap price for the lowly
Rangers. His contract will probably be in the $6-$8 million range,
which is very reasonable for the caliber of pitcher he is. If the
Rangers can stand to choke down his contract if he needs season ending
surgery in either of the first two years (which I think they should be
able to handle) then go ahead and sign him.

Here is my proposal:
Sign
Sheets, sign him now. Sign him for $6.5 million guaranteed in the first
year with incentives up to $10.5 million, 7.5 million guaranteed in the
second year with incentives up to 11.5 million, and give him a club
option in 2011 for $10 million guaranteed up to $12 million in
incentives. If we can hang on to him until 2011, and keep him healthy,
Holland, Feliz, Main, and the rest of the kids will be longterm guys in
the rotation, with Sheets they will have a veteran ace to lead the way.

So the Rangers are yet to sign Mr. Sheets, which is fine. He is 32, has
been in the league for almost 10 years and I have no doubt that he is
going to be prepared going into camp regardless of which uniform he is
wearing. That being said I still think he signs with the Rangers, but
you do have to wonder what is going on with the contract to hold them
up so long.

First off, I think the Rangers might be angling for
a 1 year + option deal. I don’t think this is a bad idea, but something
Sheets is not going to want. He is going to want 3-4 years guaranteed
for his gimpy arm. Bottom line is they need to meet somewhere in the
middle. Signing him to a straight one-year deal (like a lot of the
teams in the Sheets sweepstakes have been trying to do) is detrimental
to the Rangers in several ways. First, if he has a career year and
doesn’t get hurt, he gets lured away by another team that can afford to
pay him. If they sign him to one year with an option, he will be
pitching in 2009 and 2010, not enough time for the young arms to really
bolster this rotation.

I think they need to get a 2 year deal
with a 1 year team option put together. Structure the contract to pay
more guaranteed on the back end to give them time to get rid of
Millwood and Padilla’s contracts for good. Here are some of the points
you have to look at.

1. Ben Sheets is fragile. If he can come out and hit 175 innings for
the next 3 years he will be extremely valuable to this team, if he does
it for 65 innings this year, 105 innings next year, and 95 the year
after that, he isn’t worth the contract.

2. Millwood and Padilla have contracts that expire at the end of
2010, barring that their team options are picked up (something I am not
sure will happen). Millwood makes
$11 million this year, $12 million next year. The club option will be
realized if he hits 180 innings this year, if not I don’t think you
will see Millwood here next year. Padilla is worth $12 million this
year
and $12 million in 2010. The club has an optional $1.75 million buy-out
on Padilla’s contract for 2010. I think it all depends on what he does
this year if the contract is renewed. Basically you might be seeing $24
million (over 1/3 of the current Rangers payroll) slashed next season,
which would allow them to sign Ben Sheets (who is much better than
Millie or Pads when he isn’t on the DL) for cheap and for an extended
period of time without much downside.

3.
Sheets is cheap. Barring he needs surgery right now (which wouldn’t
surprise me, I think Mark Connor is putting something in the water that
tears rotator cuffs) he comes at a very cheap price for the lowly
Rangers. His contract will probably be in the $6-$8 million range,
which is very reasonable for the caliber of pitcher he is. If the
Rangers can stand to choke down his contract if he needs season ending
surgery in either of the first two years (which I think they should be
able to handle) then go ahead and sign him.

Here is my proposal:
Sign
Sheets, sign him now. Sign him for $6.5 million guaranteed in the first
year with incentives up to $10.5 million, 7.5 million guaranteed in the
second year with incentives up to 11.5 million, and give him a club
option in 2011 for $10 million guaranteed up to $12 million in
incentives. If we can hang on to him until 2011, and keep him healthy,
Holland, Feliz, Main, and the rest of the kids will be longterm guys in
the rotation, with Sheets they will have a veteran ace to lead the way.